Historian Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University renowned for accurately predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections, warned on Saturday that replacing President Joe Biden could jeopardize the Democrats' chances in the 2024 election.
During an appearance on CNN, Lichtman dismissed the increasing calls from political pundits and Democratic activists for the 81-year-old Biden to step aside following his poor debate performance last week against former President Donald Trump, reigniting concerns about Biden’s age and his capability to serve a second term.
Lichtman, who has accurately forecast nearly every election outcome over the past fifty years except for the 2000 race, utilizes a system of 13 historical factors or "keys." This model incorporates four political factors, seven performance-related elements, and two aspects of a candidate's personality. According to Lichtman, if the incumbent party loses six of these "keys," they are likely to lose the presidency.
The keys assess factors such as whether a candidate is the sitting president, the economic conditions, and the presence of third-party candidates.
Lichtman emphasized that debate performance is not included in these determinants. He referenced historical cases, like the 1984 election where Ronald Reagan won 49 states despite underwhelming debate performances and concerns about his age.
You can hear what he said in the video below.
Lichtman said:
"All of these pundits, pollsters, analysts that you see on all the cable channels and all of these panels have no track record predicting elections. Either they come on and they claim they know how this debate is going to affect the outcome of elections."
"They have no idea. It's talk radio. It may be entertaining but there's no scientific basis."
"[The impact of the recent presidential debate is] Zero. Debates are not predictive of outcomes. Hillary Clinton won all three debates and still lost. John Kerry won all the debates, still lost. Barack Obama got trounced, 72% to 20% in the polls, worse than Biden and went on to win."
"That's why we rely on the 13 keys that tap into the structure of how elections really work and they show that Democrats' really only chance to win, contrary to everything you've heard, is with Biden running. Look at the incumbency key: Biden checks that off. The contest key: he checks that off. It was uncontested."
"It takes six keys to count out the White House, which means of the remaining 11 keys, six would have to fall. If Biden doesn't run, they lose the contest key, they lose the incumbency key, and only four more keys would have to fall."
To that, CNN anchor Abby Phillip replied:
"I think that's what I was trying to get at here. The problem right now is that the Democratic Party is considering replacing Biden mostly because physically it's unclear if he can carry out the rest of this campaign and put up a fight against his opponent. So that seems like a fundamentally different thing than the items you have in your rubric."
Lichtman responded:
“It’s a huge mistake. They're not doctors. They don't know whether Biden is physically capable of carrying out a second term or not. A lot of people were saying the same thing about Ronald Reagan, who was 73 and age was very different then and they said, 'He's not capable of running another term. [Yet] He won 49 states."
"This is all foolhardy nonsense. The same pundits and pollsters who led us down the primrose path in 2016 are giving Democrats horrible advice. This proves what I've been saying for years: Republicans have no principles, Democrats have no spine."
Republicans are sticking with a blatant liar who lied for every 1 minute and 20 seconds of that debate. By the way, lies stick. Debate performances can be overcome and at the first sign of adversity, the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president. My goodness.”
Many agreed with Lichtman's assessment.
Biden's family has urged him to disregard suggestions to step aside following his poor debate performance against Trump. He spent Sunday at a presidential retreat with family members who encouraged him to stay in the race, according to CBS News.
A CBS News/YouGov poll released on Sunday revealed that 72% of registered Democratic voters believe the president lacks the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, with nearly half suggesting he should step aside. However, his campaign team and family maintain that he is the party's best chance to defeat Trump.
First Lady Dr. Jill Biden, speaking to Vogue from Camp David, said they “will not let those 90 minutes define the four years he’s been president." She emphasized their commitment to his campaign and noted that her husband “will always do what’s best for the country.”
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