Outgoing President Donald Trump's allies were overjoyed on Tuesday when Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a suit on behalf of the state against the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
The suit doesn't argue that widespread voter fraud tipped the election to President-elect Joe Biden—as Trump falsely insists—but that pandemic-induced changes to the election process in these states rendered election fraud undetectable.
Because the suit is between states of multiple jurisdictions, it's been filed directly with the Supreme Court, though expert after expert says the suit is so ridiculous that it likely won't be granted standing, even with a 6-3 conservative bench.
One particularly spurious claim is that Biden's chances of winning even one of these states was only one in quadrillion.
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany eagerly defended this bizarre conclusion on far-right Fox News host Sean Hannity's show.
Watch below.
Kayleigh Mcenany says the Trump campaign has a legal suit showing that the chances of Biden gaining ground the way he did in key states on election night is "one in a quadrillion to the fourth power" pic.twitter.com/QrlvIbDKVV
— nikki mccann ramírez (@NikkiMcR) December 9, 2020
McEnany said:
"The chances of Biden coming from as far behind as he was at 3 AM on election night, the chances of that are one in one quadrillion ... prevailing in all four of the states where he was so far behind, the chances of that are one in a quadrillion to the fourth power. This is all outlined right here in this lawsuit, everything we've discussed, in a sourced document by attorneys before the United States Supreme Court."
The calculation in the suit cites Charles J. Cicchetti of Pacifics Economic Group, Inc, but mathematicians are easily proving why the calculation is wrong.
First of all, it incorrectly presumes that Trump's early lead was an establishing trend.
Trump was ahead of Biden by the end of Election Night, as was widely predicted, because in-person votes—which were predominately Republican—were counted before mail-in ballots in large cities, which swung heavily for Democrats. Trump's early lead was a result of which votes were counted first, not an indication of Trump's popularity.
Chicchetti's calculation also erroneously presumes the votes counted after election night were as random as a coin toss and had an equal chance of going to Trump or Biden. In reality, mail ballots—which were counted after election night—were already statistically favored for Biden, thanks to a weeks-long Republican campaign to sow mistrust of mail-in ballots among its voters. Meanwhile, Democrats encouraged their voters to vote by mail if possible, in light of the pandemic.
Politifact, which deemed the assertion "Pants on Fire!" quoted political science professor Kenneth Mayer saying:
"The analysis assumes that votes are all independently and randomly distributed. This is going to be used in undergraduate statistics classes as a canonical example of how not to do statistics."
CNN's Jake Tapper—a prominent critic of the Trump administration—called out McEnany's lies on Twitter.
McEnany attacks me in this clip for allegedly not reading the court document. I did read it and it's embarrassing.
Here's a good explainer at @reason about the suit: “Garbage in, garbage out."https://t.co/9FI4W84pxv https://t.co/g6XCq3d60c
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) December 10, 2020
2/ We also discussed the insanity of the Texas lawsuit with @gtconway3d, whom Trump once considered for the Solicitor General position.https://t.co/ta0UsEZbYt
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) December 10, 2020
3/ @EWErickson says of the Texas suit: "The level of debasement these people have been willing to engage in makes them seem more the ball-gagged gimp from Pulp Fiction, humiliating themselves for their master. They should be ashamed and embarrassed."https://t.co/dbC2PlfqT7
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) December 10, 2020
4/ I could do this all day.
Bottom line, all credible experts say this lawsuit is garbage.
It doesn't matter how many times Kayleigh spread these conspiracy theories or insults me on MAGA media, that isn't going to change.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) December 10, 2020
He wasn't the only one to push back against the absurd claim.
Respectfully, the word for this is "dumb."
THERE WAS NO EARLY LEAD. The votes were all cast before and on election day. Republican lawmakers CHOSE not to allow mail ballots, which were disproportionately Democratic, to be counted ahead of time. https://t.co/JWt1UoZP0g
— S.V. Dáte (@svdate) December 9, 2020
Remind me never to go to the track with any of these people. https://t.co/FVYJtv68ty
— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) December 9, 2020
This... is a lie.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) December 9, 2020
This parody account is spot on. Highly recommend.
— Robert Laurie (@PaineFulThought) December 9, 2020
This is so utterly moronic. It's like they think the mere counting of *any* votes for Joe Biden was illegitimate and unreasonable. It also FAILS to recognize that the reason mail-in votes were processed and counted late in those states is because of the GOP!
— MURRAY🧢🇺🇸 (@murray_nyc) December 9, 2020
If this is ACTUALLY something they are claiming in court, they're going to get laughed out harder than ever before. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 https://t.co/4iCZvzN4gL
— Trump said 306-232 is a LANDSLIDE victory (@Transgelical) December 9, 2020
People largely sided with Tapper.
Anyone with half a pea for a brain knows that Maga news is fake! https://t.co/9HHlKIUlFh
— Dave preussner (@DavePreussner) December 10, 2020
This is a sham being inflicted on all of us. There should and will be consequences for this action. https://t.co/nRQabE8jHV
— Chad Thomas (@RevolutionbyCT) December 10, 2020
I'm appreciating your Cap moment. 🙂 pic.twitter.com/7nk9HbBPGZ
— 💫 Asta77 📽️ (@Asta77) December 10, 2020
The defendant states in the lawsuit have until 3 pm Thursday to file their counterarguments with the Court, which may still decide to dismiss the case.
