The political landscape is changing—drastically—this year, and some have sought to explain why.
Tom Bonier, CEO of Democratic-aligned data services firm TargetSmart, tweeted his observations about likely reasons for the sudden major uptick in Democratic political activity.
"Dobbs changed everything. But layer on top of that the Jan 6th hearings, Biden's Inflation Reduction Act win, gas prices dropping, Trump being viewed as the leader of the GOP, and the GOP putting forth far right candidates, and it makes sense that the GOP is undperforming badly."
\u201cDobbs changed everything. But layer on top of that the Jan 6th hearings, Biden's Inflation Reduction Act win, gas prices dropping, Trump being viewed as the leader of the GOP, and the GOP putting forth far right candidates, and it makes sense that the GOP is undperforming badly.\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662555440
Mustn't forget the most recent major change Biden has implemented:
\u201cOh, and I somehow forgot the student loan forgiveness!\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662555440
\u201cBy the way, those numbers are all new registrants, men and women. If you limit it to just women, the numbers are more stark. In PA, the women registering before Dobbs were +12D. Since Dobbs they are +42D.\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662773396
Bonier also shared a wealth of data collected by TargetSmart earlier this week.
\u201cAs we seek to continue to understand the impact the Dobbs decision is having on this election, I have some VERY cool data to share, thanks to our analytics team @TargetSmart, including @BigJoeGarland and @dmetvt.\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662745210
\u201cIn conclusion - in the first large scale (1.5 million voters) voter turnout related dataset from the November election, we are seeing a spike in engagement among women voters. Including in key states, like GA, PA, and WI. Beware of polls that don't consider this dynamic.\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662745210
\u201cInterestingly, since Dobbs the Dem margin among AAPI new registrants has been even wider, +31 as compared to +27 pre-Dobbs.\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662729236
Bonier wrote in a recent New York Times OpEd:
"In my 28 years analyzing elections, I've never seen anything like what's happened in the past two months in American politics: Women are registering to vote in numbers I've never witnessed."
Many others on Twitter agreed with Bonier's assessments:
\u201c@tbonier People always underestimate women. \n(Good too see you on @MSNBC !)\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662555440
\u201c@tbonier Also wait until the insulin price changes really hit home for people.\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662555440
Some even dared to have a bit of hope for the 2022 midterms.
\u201c@tbonier From most others my cynical heart would consider this analysis rank boosterism\u2026from you I will let myself get a little vulnerable and hope\u201d— Tom Bonier (@Tom Bonier) 1662555440
Even with evidence Dems are really showing up in numbers like never before, there's no time to become complacent.
GOP candidates certainly won't.
@PreetBharara/X
@RepBrendanBoyle/X
@twesq/Bluesky
@christopherharris/Bluesky
@evangelinewarren/X
@FrankC164/X
AMC